DEMOCRATS: “It’s abortion, stupid”
It’s the economy, stupid.
For decades, that’s been seen as a sound political strategy behind every effective presidential campaign.
Focus on the economy and people’s pocketbooks — and get some good luck in terms of how the economy is running when you run for office — and voila: You get elected to the White House, and you win reelection.
The question a growing number of Democrats are asking, however, is whether that’s still the case, as President Biden deals with stronger economic numbers but low approval ratings.
At a time of ever-greater political polarization, when abortion rights is the hot election issue of the day and former President Trump continues to shadow and change the American political landscape, is it still the economy, stupid?
With Democrats continue to celebrate their wins in Tuesday's midterm elections as a resounding victory for abortion rights. And across the country, Democratic candidates put abortion at the forefront of their campaigns, and it proved to be a fail-safe issue for them, even in conservative states like Kentucky and Ohio.
In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear secured a second term by repeatedly attacking his Republican opponent for supporting a state abortion ban without exceptions for rape and incest.
Similarly, in Virginia, Democrats were able to flip both chambers of the state legislature thanks to a barrage of ads focused on abortion.
The impact of abortion on the election was evident in Pennsylvania as well, where Democrats won a seat on the State Supreme Court in a race that saw a flurry of abortion-related ads.
And in a striking demonstration of support for abortion rights, Ohio passed a ballot measure establishing a right to abortion in the state's constitution by a double-digit margin.
These victories not only prove that abortion can mobilize a broad coalition of Democrats, independents, and even some moderate Republicans, but they also leave Republicans scrambling to find a response to an issue that has long divided their party. As the country looks towards the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have a daunting question to answer - will abortion still be enough to overcome President Biden's political weaknesses?
With the 2024 race being the first post-Roe presidential election, both parties will have to navigate unfamiliar political terrain. The impact of abortion may also be diminished by the all-consuming national conversation of a presidential contest and the distractions of Donald Trump's legal troubles.
While Democrats did not sweep all the races on Tuesday, the Biden campaign sees the results as a validation of their strategy. Despite spending millions of dollars on anti-Biden TV ads in Kentucky, President Biden still made congratulatory calls to the successful candidates, including Governor Beshear and candidates in Virginia.
Governor Beshear's deliberate distancing from President Biden is proof of the continuing polarization of the political landscape.
In a state where President Biden remains unpopular, Governor Beshear's popularity remains unscathed. And overall, recent polling has shown that a larger number of registered voters trust President Biden to do a better job on abortion rights than his Republican opponents.
But as the New York Times and Siena College's polling also found, there are some voters who support abortion rights but would still consider voting for President Trump. And those voters could prove to be crucial in future elections.
Meanwhile, Democratic strategists see plenty of ammunition to use against President Trump on the issue of abortion. Not only did he appoint three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe, but he also has a history of making controversial and inflammatory comments on the topic.
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According to Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge, the Democratic Party's research arm, these wins in traditionally "red states" prove that there is nuance and that President Trump has significant weaknesses.
Perhaps its time to update an old election year adage, maybe “It’s about abortion, stupid.”